Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.38 – 116.76

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 8.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 285.9 ±12.8

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 41.77Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 47.63Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9424E.O. JAG BOTS

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 4.98Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 237.3 ±11.2

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 71.91Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 35.45Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 9.4Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10232, 303, 9424

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 10232, 303, 9424

Auto

25.3 27%

Teleop

61.2 66%

Endgame

6.8 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 75, 433, 10366

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 75, 433, 10366

Auto

22.9 21%

Teleop

50.7 46%

Endgame

36.0 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.4pts

Blue projected score116.8pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 64–147
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 165.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

285.9Season APEX237.3

25.3Auto22.9

61.2Teleop50.7

6.8Endgame36

12Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	4
teleop	62	82
endgame	16	47
foul	0	0
total	93	133

Result

Final score

93 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 8.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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