Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.05 – 70.82

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 136.4 ±14.4

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 7.86Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX 26.39Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9439Knights of Polaris

Season APEX 45Event APEX 65.8Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.2 ±11.1

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 22.06Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 32.82Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4750Bert

Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 15.94Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11104, 1279, 9439

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.1 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11104, 1279, 9439

Auto

34.7 35%

Teleop

36.0 37%

Endgame

27.8 28%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4361, 433, 4750

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4361, 433, 4750

Auto

5.1 6%

Teleop

52.7 64%

Endgame

24.3 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.71 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.1pts

Blue projected score70.8pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.2
Score range: 46–125
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 140 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

136.4Season APEX162.2

34.7Auto5.1

36Teleop52.7

27.8Endgame24.3

12Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	8
teleop	40	28
endgame	16	26
foul	0	5
total	73	67

Result

Final score

73 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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