Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

123.12 – 97.95

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

148 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 43 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 265 ±12.2

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 38.13Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

75RoboRaiders

Season APEX 128.7Event APEX 47.99Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 37Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 278 ±11.7

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 69.16Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 31.17Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6897Astraea Robotics

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX -2.38Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10232, 75, 2191

/ 100 compat

Projected

123.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10232, 75, 2191

Auto

9.1 7%

Teleop

81.0 65%

Endgame

33.9 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7045, 25, 6897

/ 100 compat

Projected

98 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7045, 25, 6897

Auto

9.2 9%

Teleop

68.4 69%

Endgame

21.3 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.45

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score123.1pts

Blue projected score98pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 25.2
Score range: 73–148
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 137.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

265Season APEX278

9.1Auto9.2

81Teleop68.4

33.9Endgame21.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	26
teleop	73	84
endgame	15	29
foul	30	20
total	148	159

Result

Final score

148 – 159

Prediction missed · off by 43 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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