Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

125.69 – 69.97

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

207 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.3 ±10.5

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 65.37Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

428BoroBlasters

Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 30.06Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 30.26Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 130.7 ±13.9

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 49.73Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 16.82Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 3.42Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3314, 428, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

125.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3314, 428, 56

Auto

27.4 23%

Teleop

59.8 50%

Endgame

32.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8714, 6860, 3340

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8714, 6860, 3340

Auto

35.8 53%

Teleop

19.3 28%

Endgame

12.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.99 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score125.7pts

Blue projected score70pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.7
Score range: 45–151
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 247 vs event baseline 138.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.3Season APEX130.7

27.4Auto35.8

59.8Teleop19.3

32.5Endgame12.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	12
teleop	99	18
endgame	64	10
foul	0	0
total	207	40

Result

Final score

207 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 55.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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