Qualification · Qualification 15
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
59.71 – 43.44
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
224 – 66
Prediction correct · off by 93.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 380.9 ±14
Season APEX 70.2Event APEX 0.65Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 45Event APEX 21.49Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 76
Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 37.57Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.4 ±12.1
Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 32.26Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 2.6Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 8.58Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 102, 9439, 1403
35
/ 100 compatProjected
59.7 pts
~1.8 RP (district)
Teams: 102, 9439, 1403
Auto
13.1 21%
Teleop
50.1 80%
Endgame
-0.3 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4361, 2495, 11104
26
/ 100 compatProjected
43.4 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 4361, 2495, 11104
Auto
10.9 25%
Teleop
5.3 12%
Endgame
28.2 64%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 60%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.46
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score59.7pts
Blue projected score43.4pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 16.3
- Score range
- 18–85
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
380.9Season APEX139.4
13.1Auto10.9
50.1Teleop5.3
-0.3Endgame28.2
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 46 | 5 |
| teleop | 111 | 33 |
| endgame | 67 | 23 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 224 | 66 |
Result
Final score
224 – 66
Prediction correct · off by 93.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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