Qualification · Qualification 14
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
116.97 – 16.56
78%22%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
156 – 172
Prediction missed · off by 97.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 349 ±12.4
Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 2.87Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 97.76Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 16.34Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.3 ±11
Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 70.16Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 57.9Event APEX -32.94Rank 12Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -20.66Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 9424, 484, 10366
54
/ 100 compatProjected
117 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 9424, 484, 10366
Auto
-1.2 0%
Teleop
76.2 64%
Endgame
44.7 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 293, 4573, 1279
12
/ 100 compatProjected
16.6 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 293, 4573, 1279
Auto
17.7 100%
Teleop
4.7 39%
Endgame
-10.4 0%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 59%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.2 · Blue 1.01
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score117pts
Blue projected score16.6pts
Red win probability78%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 100.4
- Score range
- -8–142
- Upset likelihood
- 22%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
349Season APEX231.3
-1.2Auto17.7
76.2Teleop4.7
44.7Endgame-10.4
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 21 | 40 |
| teleop | 94 | 80 |
| endgame | 41 | 47 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 156 | 172 |
Result
Final score
156 – 172
Prediction missed · off by 97.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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