Qualification · Qualification 12
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
186.63 – 68.75
81%19%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
100 – 178
Prediction missed · off by 97.9 points
Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.8 ±12.2
Season APEX 35.1Event APEX 74.81Rank 27Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 55.28Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 55.2Event APEX 56.54Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 396.6 ±10.5
Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 27.37Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 37.8Event APEX 13.41Rank 34Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 27.97Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8130, 303, 428
84
/ 100 compatProjected
186.6 pts
~2.2 RP (district)
Teams: 8130, 303, 428
Auto
37.7 21%
Teleop
115.6 63%
Endgame
29.5 16%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 7045, 4750, 3637
43
/ 100 compatProjected
68.8 pts
~0.9 RP (district)
Teams: 7045, 4750, 3637
Auto
21.3 30%
Teleop
46.9 66%
Endgame
3.0 4%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 56%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.24 · Blue 0.89
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score186.6pts
Blue projected score68.8pts
Red win probability81%
Event bonus sample166alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 56%, blue 48%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 117.9
- Score range
- 46–210
- Upset likelihood
- 19%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
268.8Season APEX396.6
37.7Auto21.3
115.6Teleop46.9
29.5Endgame3
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 29 | 22 |
| teleop | 44 | 115 |
| endgame | 27 | 41 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 100 | 178 |
Result
Final score
100 – 178
Prediction missed · off by 97.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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