Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

2.46 – 84.22

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

86 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 152.6 ±12.7

6897Astraea Robotics

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 8.44Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

102The Gearheads

Season APEX 70.2Event APEX -9.42Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4361Roxbotix

Season APEX 41.5Event APEX 3.44Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 120 ±12.8

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 50.86Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 34.21Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1279Cold Fusion

Season APEX 49.2Event APEX -0.85Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6897, 102, 4361

/ 100 compat

Projected

2.5 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6897, 102, 4361

Auto

-1.4 0%

Teleop

1.1 12%

Endgame

9.8 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3340, 10366, 1279

/ 100 compat

Projected

84.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3340, 10366, 1279

Auto

18.9 21%

Teleop

46.6 52%

Endgame

23.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score2.5pts

Blue projected score84.2pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -81.8
Score range: -23–109
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 111 vs event baseline 136.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

152.6Season APEX120

-1.4Auto18.9

1.1Teleop46.6

9.8Endgame23.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	18
teleop	42	1
endgame	30	6
foul	0	0
total	86	25

Result

Final score

86 – 25

Prediction missed · off by 71.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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