Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

115.3 – 74.12

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 121.8 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 347.5 ±11.7

8714Robo Griffins'

Season APEX 40.8Event APEX 43.29Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 6.87Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 65.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 395.3 ±11.7

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX -2.96Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 11.59Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 65.49Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8714, 11104, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

115.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8714, 11104, 5895

Auto

30.7 26%

Teleop

55.0 47%

Endgame

31.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2495, 8588, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2495, 8588, 484

Auto

11.0 14%

Teleop

42.5 54%

Endgame

25.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score115.3pts

Blue projected score74.1pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.2
Score range: 51–138
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 433 vs event baseline 127.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

347.5Season APEX395.3

30.7Auto11

55Teleop42.5

31.6Endgame25.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	9
teleop	91	110
endgame	70	70
foul	5	0
total	244	189

Result

Final score

244 – 189

Prediction correct · off by 121.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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