Final · Finals 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

412.85 – 228.44

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

515 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.1 ±8.7

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 150.46Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

433Firebirds

Season APEX 82.9Event APEX 31.81Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5895Peddie Robotics

Season APEX 264.5Event APEX 230.58Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 565.7 ±9.9

5407Wolfpack Robotics

Season APEX 58.5Event APEX 56.44Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3637The Daleks

Season APEX 241.5Event APEX 89.25Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 82.75Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 484, 433, 5895

/ 100 compat

Projected

412.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 484, 433, 5895

Auto

84.2 20%

Teleop

237.0 57%

Endgame

91.7 22%

Strengths

· 5895 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5407, 3637, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

228.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5407, 3637, 1403

Auto

45.5 21%

Teleop

130.1 59%

Endgame

43.6 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.48 · Blue 0.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score412.9pts

Blue projected score228.4pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample166alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 184.4
Score range: 199–442
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 747 vs event baseline 163.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.1Season APEX565.7

84.2Auto45.5

237Teleop130.1

91.7Endgame43.6

20Consistency6

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	112	53
teleop	292	97
endgame	86	82
foul	25	0
total	515	232

Result

Final score

515 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 52.9 pts

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