Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.65 – 66.76

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

118 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.9 ±11.7

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX 26.11Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 24.75Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 34.79Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.5 ±12.2

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 17.03Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 23.04Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 26.69Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 752, 293, 8075

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 752, 293, 8075

Auto

18.5 28%

Teleop

35.8 54%

Endgame

11.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 204, 2495, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 204, 2495, 303

Auto

22.0 31%

Teleop

32.2 45%

Endgame

16.6 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.7pts

Blue projected score66.8pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.9
Score range: 50–103
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 93.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.9Season APEX265.5

18.5Auto22

35.8Teleop32.2

11.5Endgame16.6

50Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	24
teleop	55	48
endgame	35	26
foul	0	0
total	118	98

Result

Final score

118 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 31.8 pts

Match videos

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