Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

82.24 – 61.59

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

147 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.3 ±11

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 28.59Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 21.83Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 31.82Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 265.5 ±12.2

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 16.56Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 20.95Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 24.08Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1672, 9100, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

82.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1672, 9100, 56

Auto

16.3 21%

Teleop

32.3 41%

Endgame

29.5 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 204, 2495, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 204, 2495, 303

Auto

22.0 33%

Teleop

27.5 41%

Endgame

17.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score82.2pts

Blue projected score61.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.6
Score range: 45–99
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 93.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.3Season APEX265.5

16.3Auto22

32.3Teleop27.5

29.5Endgame17

54Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	22
teleop	63	53
endgame	36	16
foul	30	0
total	147	91

Result

Final score

147 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 47.1 pts

Match videos

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