Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

120.38 – 76.73

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

240 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 86.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 342.5 ±9.8

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 69.75Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 26.75Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 23.88Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.9 ±11.7

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX 23.98Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 20.95Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 31.8Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 9015, 7110

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2590, 9015, 7110

Auto

30.7 25%

Teleop

66.2 54%

Endgame

25.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 752, 293, 8075

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 752, 293, 8075

Auto

16.7 32%

Teleop

23.9 46%

Endgame

11.3 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.57 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score120.4pts

Blue projected score76.7pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 43.6
Score range: 60–137
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 91.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

342.5Season APEX247.9

30.7Auto16.7

66.2Teleop23.9

25.5Endgame11.3

33Consistency57

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	25
teleop	130	90
endgame	76	15
foul	20	0
total	240	130

Result

Final score

240 – 130

Prediction correct · off by 86.4 pts

Match videos

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