Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

100.33 – 70.3

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

108 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.3 ±11

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 34.4Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 28.97Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 36.96Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 266.1 ±11.7

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 1.78Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 29.3Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 39.22Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1672, 9100, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1672, 9100, 56

Auto

15.6 18%

Teleop

42.2 49%

Endgame

28.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3340, 293, 8075

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3340, 293, 8075

Auto

21.5 39%

Teleop

24.3 44%

Endgame

8.9 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score100.3pts

Blue projected score70.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30
Score range: 53–117
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 96.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.3Season APEX266.1

15.6Auto21.5

42.2Teleop24.3

28.5Endgame8.9

56Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	21
teleop	52	51
endgame	45	26
foul	0	5
total	108	103

Result

Final score

108 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 20.2 pts

Match videos

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