Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.37 – 76.19

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

144 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260.3 ±11

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 32.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 25.5Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 34.42Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.5 ±11.7

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 19.25Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 33.66Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 23.28Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1672, 9100, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1672, 9100, 56

Auto

15.8 19%

Teleop

39.4 47%

Endgame

28.2 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 87, 25, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 87, 25, 5438

Auto

16.8 21%

Teleop

41.7 52%

Endgame

21.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.4pts

Blue projected score76.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 16.2
Score range: 59–109
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 95.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260.3Season APEX316.5

15.8Auto16.8

39.4Teleop41.7

28.2Endgame21.3

59Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	26
teleop	53	59
endgame	28	26
foul	45	5
total	144	116

Result

Final score

144 – 116

Prediction correct · off by 45.7 pts

Match videos

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