Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

71.32 – 59.97

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 17.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 275.2 ±11

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 16.09Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 34.32Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 20.91Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.9 ±12.2

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 44.93Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -4.81Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 19.85Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4653, 56, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4653, 56, 5438

Auto

22.3 28%

Teleop

41.7 53%

Endgame

15.4 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5113, 2180, 2495

/ 100 compat

Projected

60 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5113, 2180, 2495

Auto

14.7 22%

Teleop

28.6 44%

Endgame

22.1 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score71.3pts

Blue projected score60pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.3
Score range: 44–87
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 167 vs event baseline 90.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

275.2Season APEX145.9

22.3Auto14.7

41.7Teleop28.6

15.4Endgame22.1

43Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	19
teleop	27	48
endgame	32	27
foul	0	0
total	73	94

Result

Final score

73 – 94

Prediction missed · off by 17.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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