Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.57 – 99.08

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

88 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 24.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.3 ±11.6

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 17.2Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 26.86Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 12.51Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 352.9 ±11.7

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 70.79Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 1.84Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 26.45Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2495, 1672, 2191

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2495, 1672, 2191

Auto

10.9 19%

Teleop

25.4 44%

Endgame

21.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2590, 3340, 9100

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2590, 3340, 9100

Auto

23.0 24%

Teleop

53.4 56%

Endgame

19.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.6pts

Blue projected score99.1pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.5
Score range: 41–115
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 90.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.3Season APEX352.9

10.9Auto23

25.4Teleop53.4

21.6Endgame19.6

29Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	17
teleop	38	17
endgame	32	43
foul	0	5
total	88	82

Result

Final score

88 – 82

Prediction missed · off by 24.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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