Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.75 – 73.35

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

196 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 17 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 409.4 ±9.8

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 103.09Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 19.51Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 42.15Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187 ±12.2

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 16.18Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 30.85Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 26.32Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1403, 486, 5113

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1403, 486, 5113

Auto

23.6 15%

Teleop

84.2 52%

Endgame

53.8 33%

Strengths

· 1403 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4653, 25, 1647

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4653, 25, 1647

Auto

18.0 21%

Teleop

55.0 63%

Endgame

14.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.84 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.8pts

Blue projected score73.4pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 91.4
Score range: 57–181
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 272 vs event baseline 89.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

409.4Season APEX187

23.6Auto18

84.2Teleop55

53.8Endgame14.5

45Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	31	30
teleop	116	26
endgame	49	20
foul	0	0
total	196	76

Result

Final score

196 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 17 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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