Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.34 – 48.8

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

157 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 316 ±12.4

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 80.47Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 27.72Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 42.15Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 128.8 ±12.2

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -5.84Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 19.65Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 34.99Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 1647, 8588

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2590, 1647, 8588

Auto

31.3 25%

Teleop

67.8 54%

Endgame

26.0 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2180, 5684, 1672

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2180, 5684, 1672

Auto

12.4 23%

Teleop

21.3 40%

Endgame

19.6 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score150.3pts

Blue projected score48.8pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 19%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 101.5
Score range: 31–168
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 99.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

316Season APEX128.8

31.3Auto12.4

67.8Teleop21.3

26Endgame19.6

33Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	96	35
endgame	22	26
foul	15	0
total	157	73

Result

Final score

157 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 15.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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