Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

70.16 – 196.53

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

89 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 173 ±11.6

4573Rambotics

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 22.89Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 29.87Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 17.4Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 617.1 ±9.3

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 27.61Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 96.25Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 72.67Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4573, 9015, 2495

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.2 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4573, 9015, 2495

Auto

30.1 43%

Teleop

23.8 34%

Endgame

15.5 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 25, 1403, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 25, 1403, 2590

Auto

26.8 14%

Teleop

117.6 61%

Endgame

48.7 25%

Strengths

· 1403 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 17%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.55 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.2pts

Blue projected score196.5pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 17%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -126.4
Score range: 54–213
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 357 vs event baseline 86.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

173Season APEX617.1

30.1Auto26.8

23.8Teleop117.6

15.5Endgame48.7

52Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	50
teleop	46	147
endgame	26	71
foul	0	0
total	89	268

Result

Final score

89 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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