Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.19 – 59.56

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 133 ±12.1

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 32.43Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 21.22Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 23.54Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 294.2 ±11.7

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 28.69Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 11.42Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 19.45Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9100, 4653, 5684

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9100, 4653, 5684

Auto

16.1 23%

Teleop

44.5 63%

Endgame

9.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1647, 293, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1647, 293, 5438

Auto

15.8 28%

Teleop

30.4 54%

Endgame

9.6 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.2pts

Blue projected score59.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 23%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.6
Score range: 44–93
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 86.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

133Season APEX294.2

16.1Auto15.8

44.5Teleop30.4

9.6Endgame9.6

17Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	28
teleop	21	74
endgame	27	17
foul	0	0
total	65	119

Result

Final score

65 – 119

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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