Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

85.05 – 71.03

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

48 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 20.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.4 ±10.4

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 14.58Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 30.7Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 39.77Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.9 ±12.2

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 13.01Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 34.67Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX 23.35Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8075, 1672, 303

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8075, 1672, 303

Auto

25.7 32%

Teleop

35.0 43%

Endgame

20.6 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2191, 7110, 752

/ 100 compat

Projected

71 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2191, 7110, 752

Auto

15.4 23%

Teleop

28.2 43%

Endgame

22.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.38 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.1pts

Blue projected score71pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14
Score range: 55–101
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 115 vs event baseline 86.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.4Season APEX140.9

25.7Auto15.4

35Teleop28.2

20.6Endgame22.6

15Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	22
teleop	17	40
endgame	13	5
foul	0	0
total	48	67

Result

Final score

48 – 67

Prediction missed · off by 20.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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