Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.02 – 158.17

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

134 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 30.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 322.3 ±11.2

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 26.09Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 69.3Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 10.63Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.9 ±11.2

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 98.32Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 37.41Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 22.44Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9015, 2590, 204

/ 100 compat

Projected

106 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9015, 2590, 204

Auto

22.7 21%

Teleop

65.2 61%

Endgame

18.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1403, 56, 87

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1403, 56, 87

Auto

30.4 20%

Teleop

81.1 53%

Endgame

42.5 28%

Strengths

· 1403 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106pts

Blue projected score158.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -52.1
Score range: 91–173
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 260 vs event baseline 85.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

322.3Season APEX433.9

22.7Auto30.4

65.2Teleop81.1

18.3Endgame42.5

62Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	29
teleop	51	62
endgame	27	25
foul	0	10
total	134	126

Result

Final score

134 – 126

Prediction missed · off by 30.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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