Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

43.88 – 29.38

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

54 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 238.9 ±11.7

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 25.03Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 15.36Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5624TIGER TECH Robotics

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 3.49Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.8 ±12.2

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -5.09Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 16.81Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 17.66Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 486, 293, 5624

/ 100 compat

Projected

43.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 486, 293, 5624

Auto

15.0 34%

Teleop

11.6 26%

Endgame

17.6 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2180, 2495, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2180, 2495, 5438

Auto

10.2 34%

Teleop

7.9 26%

Endgame

11.9 40%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score43.9pts

Blue projected score29.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.5
Score range: 13–60
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 97 vs event baseline 86.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

238.9Season APEX218.8

15Auto10.2

11.6Teleop7.9

17.6Endgame11.9

129Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	19
teleop	18	9
endgame	23	15
foul	0	0
total	54	43

Result

Final score

54 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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