Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

52.07 – 39.45

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.5 ±13.3

4573Rambotics

Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 25.62Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 5.68Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 20.77Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 212.6 ±11.6

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 10.86Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 17.47Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 11.12Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4573, 3340, 1647

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4573, 3340, 1647

Auto

18.8 40%

Teleop

19.3 41%

Endgame

8.8 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2495, 4653, 293

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.4 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2495, 4653, 293

Auto

18.6 50%

Teleop

16.9 45%

Endgame

1.8 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score52.1pts

Blue projected score39.4pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 12.6
Score range: 24–67
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 84.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.5Season APEX212.6

18.8Auto18.6

19.3Teleop16.9

8.8Endgame1.8

6Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	22
teleop	37	49
endgame	10	15
foul	0	0
total	82	86

Result

Final score

82 – 86

Prediction missed · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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