Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.08 – 142.98

26%74%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

83 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 47.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 277.8 ±11.7

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 16.25Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 15.48Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 25.35Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 356.7 ±10.5

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 14.47Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 39.79Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 88.72Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5438, 87, 486

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5438, 87, 486

Auto

14.9 29%

Teleop

18.1 35%

Endgame

18.3 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2191, 5113, 2590

/ 100 compat

Projected

143 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2191, 5113, 2590

Auto

15.1 11%

Teleop

89.8 66%

Endgame

30.2 22%

Strengths

· 2590 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 16%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.1pts

Blue projected score143pts

Red win probability26%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 16%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -85.9
Score range: 42–158
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 157 vs event baseline 84.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

277.8Season APEX356.7

14.9Auto15.1

18.1Teleop89.8

18.3Endgame30.2

96Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	26
teleop	46	31
endgame	23	12
foul	0	5
total	83	74

Result

Final score

83 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 47.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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