Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

61.07 – 56.19

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

42 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 231.9 ±11.7

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 15.31Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 40.54Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 5.22Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.2 ±12.8

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 30.33Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 18.34Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6897Astraea Robotics

Season APEX 40.9Event APEX 7.52Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 293, 5113, 3340

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 293, 5113, 3340

Auto

12.8 26%

Teleop

24.5 50%

Endgame

11.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1672, 87, 6897

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 1672, 87, 6897

Auto

12.2 26%

Teleop

19.1 40%

Endgame

16.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.26 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.1pts

Blue projected score56.2pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.9
Score range: 41–76
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 82 vs event baseline 85.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

231.9Season APEX179.2

12.8Auto12.2

24.5Teleop19.1

11.8Endgame16.4

62Consistency96

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	15
teleop	22	21
endgame	6	4
foul	0	0
total	42	40

Result

Final score

42 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 17.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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