Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.76 – 111.15

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 28 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 222.2 ±11

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 27.45Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 74.91Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 20.4Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.6 ±11.7

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 17.25Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 78.23Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX 15.67Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 486, 1923, 4653

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 486, 1923, 4653

Auto

27.5 22%

Teleop

71.5 57%

Endgame

27.3 22%

Strengths

· 1923 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5684, 2590, 752

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5684, 2590, 752

Auto

15.3 14%

Teleop

69.6 63%

Endgame

25.3 23%

Strengths

· 2590 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.8pts

Blue projected score111.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.6
Score range: 96–138
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 290 vs event baseline 82.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

222.2Season APEX282.6

27.5Auto15.3

71.5Teleop69.6

27.3Endgame25.3

129Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	16
teleop	73	112
endgame	23	38
foul	0	0
total	124	166

Result

Final score

124 – 166

Prediction missed · off by 28 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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