Qualification · Qualification 30
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
61.58 – 46.62
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
42 – 75
Prediction missed · off by 24 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 220.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 5.71Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 24.74Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 31.13Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.4 ±12.7
Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 10.21Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 57.9Event APEX 21.05Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 15.36Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5624, 5438, 7110
53
/ 100 compatProjected
61.6 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 5624, 5438, 7110
Auto
14.6 22%
Teleop
34.4 52%
Endgame
17.2 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 204, 4573, 9100
28
/ 100 compatProjected
46.6 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 204, 4573, 9100
Auto
16.9 47%
Teleop
2.4 7%
Endgame
16.7 46%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 15%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.14
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score61.6pts
Blue projected score46.6pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 15%, blue 19%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 15
- Score range
- 32–77
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
220.6Season APEX165.4
14.6Auto16.9
34.4Teleop2.4
17.2Endgame16.7
46Consistency46
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 20 | 23 |
| teleop | 12 | 41 |
| endgame | 10 | 11 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 42 | 75 |
Result
Final score
42 – 75
Prediction missed · off by 24 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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