Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.65 – 104.63

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

155 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 394.3 ±10.5

2495Hive Mind

Season APEX 55.7Event APEX 11.68Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 72.61Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 15.36Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291 ±11.7

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 39.43Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 31.25Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 33.95Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2495, 2590, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2495, 2590, 56

Auto

22.2 23%

Teleop

67.3 70%

Endgame

6.3 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8588, 303, 5113

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8588, 303, 5113

Auto

29.4 30%

Teleop

56.7 58%

Endgame

12.2 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score99.6pts

Blue projected score104.6pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5
Score range: 85–120
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 81.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

394.3Season APEX291

22.2Auto29.4

67.3Teleop56.7

6.3Endgame12.2

81Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	31
teleop	66	78
endgame	66	41
foul	0	0
total	155	150

Result

Final score

155 – 150

Prediction missed · off by 50.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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