Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.4 – 55.16

68%32%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 57.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.8 ±11

5684Titans of Tech

Season APEX 24.1Event APEX 39.77Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 41.2Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 33.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 289.4 ±10.4

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 11.05Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 41.42Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 2.69Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5684, 303, 293

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5684, 303, 293

Auto

38.9 34%

Teleop

62.6 55%

Endgame

13.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 25, 5113, 56

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 25, 5113, 56

Auto

9.7 20%

Teleop

25.4 51%

Endgame

14.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.4pts

Blue projected score55.2pts

Red win probability68%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 59.2
Score range: 41–128
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 142 vs event baseline 78.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.8Season APEX289.4

38.9Auto9.7

62.6Teleop25.4

13.1Endgame14.3

54Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	25
teleop	13	39
endgame	2	20
foul	0	15
total	43	99

Result

Final score

43 – 99

Prediction missed · off by 57.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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