Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

83.53 – 49.73

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

91 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 153 ±13.3

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 24.72Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX 23.45Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 35.36Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.7 ±12.8

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 7.59Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

87Diablo

Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 18.84Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 23.3Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9100, 752, 8588

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9100, 752, 8588

Auto

12.5 17%

Teleop

44.6 59%

Endgame

17.9 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3340, 87, 9015

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 3340, 87, 9015

Auto

20.6 44%

Teleop

23.9 51%

Endgame

2.2 5%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.5pts

Blue projected score49.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.8
Score range: 35–99
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 85.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

153Season APEX165.7

12.5Auto20.6

44.6Teleop23.9

17.9Endgame2.2

16Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	32
teleop	7	40
endgame	19	8
foul	45	0
total	91	80

Result

Final score

91 – 80

Prediction correct · off by 18.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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