Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

103.73 – 47.92

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 253.7 ±11

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 45.94Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 21.3Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 36.49Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 145.2 ±12.8

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 21.24Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 26.38Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5624TIGER TECH Robotics

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 0.3Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 293, 8075, 4653

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 293, 8075, 4653

Auto

29.4 30%

Teleop

56.7 58%

Endgame

12.1 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1672, 1647, 5624

/ 100 compat

Projected

47.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 1672, 1647, 5624

Auto

7.4 18%

Teleop

19.8 48%

Endgame

13.8 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 20%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score103.7pts

Blue projected score47.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55.8
Score range: 34–118
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 112 vs event baseline 77.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

253.7Season APEX145.2

29.4Auto7.4

56.7Teleop19.8

12.1Endgame13.8

69Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	13
teleop	9	34
endgame	4	30
foul	0	0
total	35	77

Result

Final score

35 – 77

Prediction missed · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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