Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

76.74 – 30.87

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 36.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 214.8 ±12.8

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 51.35Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 14.22Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

25Raider Robotix

Season APEX 119.8Event APEX 11.17Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215 ±11.7

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX -0.4Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

752Chargers

Season APEX 26.9Event APEX -1.73Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

486Positronic Panthers

Season APEX 81.1Event APEX 33Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8588, 3340, 25

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8588, 3340, 25

Auto

9.5 14%

Teleop

41.9 62%

Endgame

16.1 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 56, 752, 486

/ 100 compat

Projected

30.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 56, 752, 486

Auto

15.1 51%

Teleop

3.9 13%

Endgame

10.5 36%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.7pts

Blue projected score30.9pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.9
Score range: 17–91
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 118 vs event baseline 77.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

214.8Season APEX215

9.5Auto15.1

41.9Teleop3.9

16.1Endgame10.5

65Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	18
teleop	15	31
endgame	9	24
foul	0	0
total	45	73

Result

Final score

45 – 73

Prediction missed · off by 36.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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