Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

96.17 – 65.89

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443.3 ±10.5

2590Nemesis

Season APEX 231.6Event APEX 62.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 12.79Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 20.86Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.8 ±11

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 33.73Rank 25Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5113Combustible Lemons

Season APEX 62.6Event APEX 28.42Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7110Heights Bytes

Season APEX 51.5Event APEX 3.74Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2590, 9100, 5438

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2590, 9100, 5438

Auto

16.3 19%

Teleop

50.4 60%

Endgame

17.6 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4653, 5113, 7110

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 4653, 5113, 7110

Auto

11.1 17%

Teleop

45.1 71%

Endgame

7.3 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score96.2pts

Blue projected score65.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 24%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30.3
Score range: 52–110
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 76.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443.3Season APEX146.8

16.3Auto11.1

50.4Teleop45.1

17.6Endgame7.3

23Consistency34

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	20
teleop	92	55
endgame	15	21
foul	0	0
total	115	96

Result

Final score

115 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 24.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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