Qualification · Qualification 16
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Blue alliance
Predicted score
46.28 – 67.85
43%57%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
27 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 33.2 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.1 ±13.9
Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 22.58Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 6.58Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 61.2Event APEX 17.12Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 264.6 ±10.4
Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 51.03Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 59.4Event APEX 4.03Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 12.79Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 204, 5624, 87
52
/ 100 compatProjected
46.3 pts
~1.0 RP (district)
Teams: 204, 5624, 87
Auto
7.9 20%
Teleop
19.4 50%
Endgame
11.6 30%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1923, 9015, 8075
55
/ 100 compatProjected
67.9 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 1923, 9015, 8075
Auto
24.0 36%
Teleop
38.9 58%
Endgame
4.1 6%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 11%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.47
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score46.3pts
Blue projected score67.9pts
Red win probability43%
Event bonus sample146alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 11%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- -21.6
- Score range
- 32–82
- Upset likelihood
- 43%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
126.1Season APEX264.6
7.9Auto24
19.4Teleop38.9
11.6Endgame4.1
73Consistency101
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 12 | 33 |
| teleop | 8 | 59 |
| endgame | 7 | 23 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 27 | 115 |
Result
Final score
27 – 115
Prediction correct · off by 33.2 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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