Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

65.67 – 99.77

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

44 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 23 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.5 ±12.8

56R.O.B.B.E.

Season APEX 107Event APEX 5.71Rank 4Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 60.22Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2180Zero Gravity

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -0.26Rank 29Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 362.7 ±11.7

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 24.28Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 2.31Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1403Team 1403 Cougar Robotics

Season APEX 265.7Event APEX 73.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 56, 8588, 2180

/ 100 compat

Projected

65.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 56, 8588, 2180

Auto

24.1 37%

Teleop

33.9 52%

Endgame

7.1 11%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1647, 2191, 1403

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1647, 2191, 1403

Auto

20.6 21%

Teleop

55.4 56%

Endgame

23.0 23%

Strengths

· 1403 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.09 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score65.7pts

Blue projected score99.8pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -34.1
Score range: 52–114
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 168 vs event baseline 75.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.5Season APEX362.7

24.1Auto20.6

33.9Teleop55.4

7.1Endgame23

36Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	19
teleop	9	70
endgame	18	30
foul	0	5
total	44	124

Result

Final score

44 – 124

Prediction correct · off by 23 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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