Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

72.29 – 94.26

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 174.2 ±12.8

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 38.05Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

204Eastern Robotic Vikings

Season APEX 31.3Event APEX 13.32Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1647Iron Devils

Season APEX 34.5Event APEX 20.92Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 257.7 ±11.7

1672Robo T-Birds

Season APEX 77.1Event APEX 34.56Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5438Technological Terrors

Season APEX 135.5Event APEX 31.96Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3340Union City EagleX Robotics

Season APEX 45.1Event APEX 27.74Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1923, 204, 1647

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1923, 204, 1647

Auto

16.3 26%

Teleop

38.1 60%

Endgame

9.3 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1672, 5438, 3340

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1672, 5438, 3340

Auto

15.8 18%

Teleop

48.0 54%

Endgame

25.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score72.3pts

Blue projected score94.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22
Score range: 59–107
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 72.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

174.2Season APEX257.7

16.3Auto15.8

38.1Teleop48

9.3Endgame25.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	79	18
endgame	22	13
foul	0	15
total	125	58

Result

Final score

125 – 58

Prediction missed · off by 44.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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