Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

69.51 – 39.53

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

115 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 44 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 290.9 ±12.2

303The T.E.S.T. Team

Season APEX 178.5Event APEX 11.37Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8588Tech Devils

Season APEX 49.9Event APEX 52.96Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2191Flux Core

Season APEX 62.5Event APEX 5.18Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.8 ±11

293SPIKE

Season APEX 124.2Event APEX 26.81Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9100Robo Roses

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 17.13Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9015Questionable Engineering

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX -4.41Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 303, 8588, 2191

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 303, 8588, 2191

Auto

17.1 27%

Teleop

35.9 57%

Endgame

10.0 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 293, 9100, 9015

/ 100 compat

Projected

39.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 293, 9100, 9015

Auto

19.3 47%

Teleop

15.3 38%

Endgame

6.2 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.5pts

Blue projected score39.5pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample146alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 30
Score range: 28–82
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 69.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

290.9Season APEX259.8

17.1Auto19.3

35.9Teleop15.3

10Endgame6.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	21
teleop	68	31
endgame	12	15
foul	0	15
total	115	82

Result

Final score

115 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 44 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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