Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
140.33 – 81.4
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
185 – 151
Prediction correct · off by 57.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±11
Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 17.86Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 62.36Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 60.11Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 211.5 ±11.7
Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 12.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 30.65Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 37.87Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5992, 7045, 555
70
/ 100 compatProjected
140.3 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 5992, 7045, 555
Auto
24.9 18%
Teleop
78.1 58%
Endgame
31.8 24%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8117, 8771, 223
53
/ 100 compatProjected
81.4 pts
~1.1 RP (district)
Teams: 8117, 8771, 223
Auto
19.5 25%
Teleop
38.3 49%
Endgame
19.6 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.69 · Blue 1.08
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score140.3pts
Blue projected score81.4pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 39%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 58.9
- Score range
- 60–161
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
295.4Season APEX211.5
24.9Auto19.5
78.1Teleop38.3
31.8Endgame19.6
0Consistency9
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 38 | 4 |
| teleop | 94 | 70 |
| endgame | 38 | 72 |
| foul | 15 | 5 |
| total | 185 | 151 |
Result
Final score
185 – 151
Prediction correct · off by 57.1 pts
Match videos
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