Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

89.37 – 78.21

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

66 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 126.7 ±11.6

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 30.25Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 17.24Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 41.88Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.4 ±12.7

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 2.56Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 24.12Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 51.53Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1626, 6016, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1626, 6016, 1811

Auto

16.0 19%

Teleop

42.0 49%

Endgame

28.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3142, 8707, 219

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3142, 8707, 219

Auto

21.9 32%

Teleop

31.4 45%

Endgame

16.2 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score89.4pts

Blue projected score78.2pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.2
Score range: 57–110
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 101 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

126.7Season APEX146.4

16Auto21.9

42Teleop31.4

28.1Endgame16.2

37Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	22
teleop	28	10
endgame	6	3
foul	5	0
total	66	35

Result

Final score

66 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 33.3 pts

Match videos

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