Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

106.36 – 93.16

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

186 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±11

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 6.89Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 50.37Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 49.1Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.4 ±12.7

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 8.48Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 28.65Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 56.03Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5992, 7045, 555

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5992, 7045, 555

Auto

16.6 17%

Teleop

64.0 64%

Endgame

19.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3142, 8707, 219

/ 100 compat

Projected

93.2 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 3142, 8707, 219

Auto

23.2 28%

Teleop

40.5 49%

Endgame

18.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.42 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.4pts

Blue projected score93.2pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 13.2
Score range: 72–127
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 213 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.4Season APEX146.4

16.6Auto23.2

64Teleop40.5

19.9Endgame18.6

0Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	17
teleop	110	0
endgame	33	10
foul	5	0
total	186	27

Result

Final score

186 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 72.9 pts

Match videos

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