Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

318.5 – 88.65

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

402 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±10.5

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 132.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 183.88Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 2.22Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 126.7 ±11.6

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 29.88Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 17.51Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 41.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8706, 8513, 6945

/ 100 compat

Projected

318.5 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8706, 8513, 6945

Auto

83.2 26%

Teleop

193.0 61%

Endgame

40.9 13%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1626, 6016, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1626, 6016, 1811

Auto

15.8 18%

Teleop

38.2 44%

Endgame

32.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score318.5pts

Blue projected score88.7pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 229.9
Score range: 69–339
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 495 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.7Season APEX126.7

83.2Auto15.8

193Teleop38.2

40.9Endgame32.3

35Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	103	17
teleop	231	56
endgame	68	15
foul	0	5
total	402	93

Result

Final score

402 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 43.9 pts

Match videos

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