Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

236.57 – 147.63

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

226 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.5 ±10.7

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 23.14Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 87.15Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 126.28Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±11

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 19.67Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 65.52Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 62.44Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10997, 1676, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

236.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10997, 1676, 11

Auto

21.0 9%

Teleop

145.8 65%

Endgame

56.0 25%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5992, 7045, 555

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5992, 7045, 555

Auto

26.3 19%

Teleop

81.8 58%

Endgame

32.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score236.6pts

Blue projected score147.6pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 88.9
Score range: 127–258
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 364 vs event baseline 116.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.5Season APEX295.4

21Auto26.3

145.8Teleop81.8

56Endgame32.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	46
teleop	121	50
endgame	52	32
foul	15	10
total	226	138

Result

Final score

226 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 10.1 pts

Match videos

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