Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

322.13 – 224.76

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 489.7 ±10.5

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 132.66Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 4.29Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 185.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 523.9 ±9.9

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 5.9Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 90.1Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 128.76Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8706, 6945, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

322.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8706, 6945, 8513

Auto

88.8 28%

Teleop

188.7 59%

Endgame

42.9 13%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9116, 1676, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

224.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9116, 1676, 11

Auto

25.5 12%

Teleop

131.7 62%

Endgame

54.2 26%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.02 · Blue 0.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score322.1pts

Blue projected score224.8pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 97.4
Score range: 204–343
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 115.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

489.7Season APEX523.9

88.8Auto25.5

188.7Teleop131.7

42.9Endgame54.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	8
teleop	112	105
endgame	30	37
foul	20	15
total	249	165

Result

Final score

249 – 165

Prediction correct · off by 66.4 pts

Match videos

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