Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

75.16 – 106.07

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

143 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 38.9 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 326.8 ±11.7

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX -12.55Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9424E.O. JAG BOTS

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 9.71Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.5 ±12.7

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 9.71Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 52.61Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5624TIGER TECH Robotics

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 43.75Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11, 6945, 9424

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11, 6945, 9424

Auto

23.7 29%

Teleop

53.3 65%

Endgame

5.3 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9116, 219, 5624

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9116, 219, 5624

Auto

21.8 21%

Teleop

46.8 45%

Endgame

34.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.12 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score75.2pts

Blue projected score106.1pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.9
Score range: 57–124
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 259 vs event baseline 97.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

326.8Season APEX147.5

23.7Auto21.8

53.3Teleop46.8

5.3Endgame34.3

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	24
teleop	113	60
endgame	20	17
foul	5	15
total	143	116

Result

Final score

143 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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