Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.57 – 116.28

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

58 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 61.4 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 94.5 ±13.9

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 3.71Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 72Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 28.86Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±11.6

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 43.71Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 28.86Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 43.71Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8707, 10997, 430

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8707, 10997, 430

Auto

25.1 25%

Teleop

56.6 56%

Endgame

18.6 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10995, 222, 5992

/ 100 compat

Projected

116.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10995, 222, 5992

Auto

27.7 26%

Teleop

46.0 43%

Endgame

34.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.27 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.6pts

Blue projected score116.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.7
Score range: 86–135
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 98 vs event baseline 104.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

94.5Season APEX199.5

25.1Auto27.7

56.6Teleop46

18.6Endgame34

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	7
teleop	12	26
endgame	7	2
foul	30	5
total	58	40

Result

Final score

58 – 40

Prediction missed · off by 61.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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