Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

67.74 – 40.32

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

82 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 53 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 241 ±11.7

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 40.56Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 7.14Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 20.04Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±11

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 7.14Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 20.04Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 13.14Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8075, 10366, 555

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8075, 10366, 555

Auto

9.4 15%

Teleop

23.2 38%

Endgame

28.5 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 41, 7045, 6016

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 41, 7045, 6016

Auto

11.5 30%

Teleop

10.5 27%

Endgame

16.8 43%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.7pts

Blue projected score40.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.4
Score range: 21–87
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 214 vs event baseline 104.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

241Season APEX234.8

9.4Auto11.5

23.2Teleop10.5

28.5Endgame16.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	25
teleop	13	80
endgame	12	27
foul	40	0
total	82	132

Result

Final score

82 – 132

Prediction missed · off by 53 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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