Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.77 – 35.65

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

74 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.8 ±12.2

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 10.96Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 10.36Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 13.45Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 99.8 ±13.3

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 32.78Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 4.26Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX -1.39Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8117, 4652, 10995

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8117, 4652, 10995

Auto

17.8 59%

Teleop

0.9 3%

Endgame

11.5 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8771, 9116, 10366

/ 100 compat

Projected

35.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8771, 9116, 10366

Auto

23.4 65%

Teleop

9.8 27%

Endgame

2.6 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.8pts

Blue projected score35.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.9
Score range: 14–57
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 109 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.8Season APEX99.8

17.8Auto23.4

0.9Teleop9.8

11.5Endgame2.6

5Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	19
teleop	23	6
endgame	25	10
foul	0	0
total	74	35

Result

Final score

74 – 35

Prediction missed · off by 19.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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