Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.39 – 186.23

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 92.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.7 ±11

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 34.56Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 54.51Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 136.32Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 282.6 ±11

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 71.41Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 66.46Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 48.36Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1626, 7045, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1626, 7045, 8706

Auto

53.4 24%

Teleop

130.8 58%

Endgame

42.2 19%

Strengths

· 8706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 222, 219, 223

/ 100 compat

Projected

186.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 222, 219, 223

Auto

22.9 13%

Teleop

113.5 65%

Endgame

39.3 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.4pts

Blue projected score186.2pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 39.2
Score range: 165–246
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.7Season APEX282.6

53.4Auto22.9

130.8Teleop113.5

42.2Endgame39.3

8Consistency3

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	22
teleop	72	21
endgame	19	18
foul	10	0
total	165	61

Result

Final score

165 – 61

Prediction correct · off by 92.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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